Spring practices are on the books and fall camps will be here before you know it, so that means having an early jump into the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you understand what to expect next year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 college football preview.
# 48 – Central Florida Gold Knights 8-5 SU; 8-5 ATS
Fargo’s Take Central Florida had the biggest change in the country last season, going from zero wins in 2004 to eight last season. With 17 starters and a relatively subdued schedule, things could get even better in 2006. But let’s not go there just yet. The Golden Knights defeated only one team with a winning record last year, won seven of their eight games by 10 points or less, suffered no major injuries and finished 12th at home in rotation margin. Basically everything went their way and that probably won’t happen again. This is a very talented team with a proven head coach in George O’Leary, but everything has to fit back together. 10 of the 22 incumbents are sophomores, nine of whom were incumbents as freshmen, so give this team another year or two and then we’ll see what it’s capable of. He’s likely to have a winning record, but a losing record wouldn’t be surprising given all the breaks the Golden Knights received last season.
Starters Returning To Offense – 8 The offense was good enough to win games a season ago and while that might be considered excellent, it’s not really considering that Central Florida was able to sneak up on most teams. The Golden Knights increased their point production by about 13 points per game over the previous season, so they cannot be taken away and should be applauded for that. The leader was quarterback Steven Moffett, who shook off a terrible 2004 season and shined last season. All five starters are back on the offensive line, which means the running game that averaged 167.1 ypg appears to be in good shape once again. Leading receiver Brandon Marshall needs to be replaced while top returner Mike Walker is slowly making a comeback after a knee injury last season. The offense should be strong once again, but there will be no significant improvement.
Headlines returning to defense – 9 Central Florida struggled on defense last season, finishing 96th in the country in total defense and 76th in scoring defense. All but two starters return in 2006, but that may be a catch-22 considering how average he was and how young he still is. The final seven are made up of six sophomores, including the entire high school, which finished 81st in pass defense. The unit allowed just 4.2 fewer points per game than the year before, and while it gave up fewer yards on the ground, it allowed more yards per average carry. I make it look like the defense doesn’t stand a chance, but that’s not the case. One year of experience for all these young people is very useful and there is a very good chance that the unit will improve significantly. There are too many questions to predict that, and while the defense won’t be any worse, it won’t be that much better either.
Schedule The schedule is very forgiving once again, and that could be the only thing that gets the Golden Knights back into the postseason. The non-conference schedule begins with a home game against Villanova, but it gets tougher after that. They are the hosts of South Florida and Pittsburgh, two games that could go either way, and must travel to Florida in the second game of the year. C-USA’s slate is very soft with the toughest home game against South Mississippi, so all four conference games are winnable. The most difficult road game is in the Houston West Division, while the other three face Marshall, Memphis and Tulane, teams ranked below them. Keep in mind that the two best teams in the West, UTEP and Tulsa, are nowhere on the calendar.
You can bet on … The Golden Knights are ranked as high as they are due to the number of returning starters along with the relatively easy schedule. Some bad breaks and Central Florida could have a very average season. O’Leary did it once, and yet he’s capable of doing it again. The Golden Knights have only 3-9 ATS in action outside of the conference over the past four seasons and those three wins came against Penn St., West Virginia and South Carolina, games in which they got at least two touchdowns. They will get a lot in Florida, but the home games against South Florida and Pittsburgh will be almost even. Central Florida is also 0-5 ATS like chalk on the road for the past three years, and the game at Marshall is likely to fall into that category.
