Much has been written and said about horses that shed a clinker on the run after their maximum effort. When a horse runs very hard and gets his highest speed figure in his career, handicappers worry that he may rebound in his next race and run poorly. It happens, but like everything else in horse racing, there are several reasons and understanding them will help you deal with this situation in your disability.
First, let’s think about what makes a horse bounce. Horses don’t read the race form and they don’t care what their speed rating was on their last race. It’s about how they feel. That’s what the horse cares about. They must be physically fit and rested before a race and they must also be mentally fit. What is going on in the horse’s head is very important.
If the top strain in his previous race tired the horse out a lot, it may be months before he physically recovers. Young horses naturally recover better physically than older horses, but that is not necessarily true of their mental state. A horse that ran with all its heart and lost may not want to try to win again. When a horse loses to a superior horse despite his best effort, it does matter.
They may not think much, but they are pack animals and establish their social standing through skill and will. That will can take a direct hit if a horse was hit despite trying very hard. An older horse may not care as much because he knows his place and also knows that another breed is always coming to settle. How can a trainer know that the horse has lost confidence or desire?
Unfortunately, for both the trainer and the handicapper, that information doesn’t always come to light until after the race has started. Sometimes a horse will give clues about his mental state and sometimes not. If a horse doesn’t eat enough after a big race, that’s a bad sign. It usually means that he needs some time off and a chance to regroup. Good trainers realize that and will let the horse rest.
The handicapper should be wary of any horse that has had a great career, but that doesn’t mean it should be ruled out as a potential winner. If the trainer has let him rest since his last race and he seems poised and ready in the paddock, it may be worth a try. However, a drop in class is not necessarily a good sign or reason to bet on that horse.
I’d rather see a horse that ran hard brought back to the same level. A drop in class may mean that the trainer knows the horse is in no condition to win because it is likely to rebound. Following the trainers and understanding their moves will help you figure it out.
