Very few people who are serious about making a profit in horse racing will bet on a race without first looking at past performances or forms. It’s nearly impossible for most of us to pick winners without looking at past performances. Horse racing handicap is a difficult task and relies on what happened in the past to predict the future.
We look to the past to predict the future but we place our bets on the present and that is when the races are run, in the present. Therefore, it is a big mistake to ignore what is right in front of you, what is happening here and now. But go to any race track or OTB saloon and you’ll find men and women poring over a form or past performances and completely ignoring the horses in the subsequent parade or saddling ring.
I recently had two experiences that reinforced my belief that you should never place a bet without looking at the horse you are betting on. Both races were at Tampa Bay Downs and both were maiden races. In one of the races, the favorite looked great on paper. He seemed to be a horse that was lying on the field. He was going 4 to 5. He didn’t want to bet, but he certainly didn’t want to bet against. I decided that this was a race to watch but not to bet on.
The horses paraded when I noticed that the favorite was all washed up. Sweat ran down the horse. The foam on the horse and his agitated state made me realize that I was not going to win. Although he may have been able to show good initial speed, there would be no gas left in the tank at the end of the race because the sweat that came out was the equivalent of energy. I sifted through the potential contenders and chose one that not only looked good on paper but also performed well in the post show.
I ended up in the short line cashing my ticket as a stunned crowd threw away their losing tickets. The answer was right in front of them, but many did not see it. A little visual impairment would have saved their losses, but many didn’t know some simple truths about horses or just didn’t look.
In the second case, the truth was a little less obvious. I noticed that the favorite in a maiden race was what we call a “hikey.” This is a slang term meaning that while the horse was walking there was a small jump or block in its gait indicating some pain. Pain doesn’t always stop a horse from winning a race. I once had a trotter named Bomb Strike who had a problem with suffocation. She would be seen lame in the parade afterwards and more than once was called to the paddock before a race by stewards to see her. Usually on the way back to the paddock the pain would go away and she would perform well.
I just needed a good warm up time to get rid of the stiffness and soreness. I rested her between runs and even had a massage therapist work with her to help with the problem.
But I realized that since the maiden I was looking at was under the odds, it was a good chance to bet on another potential contender. Once again the favorite failed to satisfy the crowd and I ended up in a short line cashing in a ticket.
The lesson to be learned from all of this is that a horse’s condition and health can change on a daily basis. The horse owners probably knew their horses were not going to win and took advantage of that inside information. Even if you didn’t know how to see the problem with the horses, using a good dash method like True Handicapping would have alerted you that something was wrong.
Whether it was looking at the horses or looking at the board, the evidence of what was happening in front of you could have saved you from betting on those losers. But to do that you would have had to forget the past and tune in to the present. Learning some simple ways to spot a problem with a horse, or a healthy horse that is fit and ready to win, or the important keys on the hand board are all good ways to spot more winners while competing in horse racing.
