This is the first of many helpful articles to help you get through the NFL season unscathed, with your bank account intact!
One of the first lessons to learn when trying to predict the backward progression of an NFL season is to not follow the herd! The NFL is by far the most wagered sport in America. Therefore, it is also the most monitored by sportsbooks and casinos, due to the large number of bets for each game. The fact that there are a maximum of 16 games per week, allows them to take a closer look at each and every game, making it very difficult to find their advantages. This is not college basketball, where there are 16 games every night! Plenty of time to analyze each game, each line and look for your best chance to get your money!
However, if the truth is known, your goal isn’t to outsmart the book, it’s to recognize when the book is trying to take advantage of you. Due to the extreme amounts of money wagered and the definite patterns of public betting, there are opportunities to encounter inflated lines and accept what is sometimes the unpopular bet.
Every week, there are several games on the board in which the line will be contaminated. This is not bad; this is simply that bookmakers know that the betting public is going to overreact to a hot or cold team. It happens every week! Week two already had that scenario developed. In the second week, the Baltimore Ravens played the Tennessee Titans. The Ravens were coming off a dominant performance against the Steelers, and the Titans suffered a disappointing loss to the Jags. The results were surprising, but not entirely unexpected if you look a little closer.
The Las Vegas books drew the line with the Ravens being favored for 4 on the road on the Titans. Public money hit the Ravens and brought the differential to 5.5 late in the game. Now you need to understand that 80% of the public money was bet on Baltimore while the smart money was bet on the Titans! The line was overloaded due to public perception. The public bet big on the Ravens and the books cleaned house. The Titans dominated the Ravens in Nashville. The Titans outscored their opponent by over 100 yards and held the ball for 11 more minutes, dominating time of possession and ultimately dominating the score 26-13. A great day for the Titans, the smart money and the books1 and a terrible day for the Ravens and the confused public that overreacted to Raven’s win over a Steeler team that had 7 turnovers!! Who can’t beat a team that has 7 turnovers! That is a good question! Who was the last NFL team to win a game with 7 turnovers? The most turnovers in a win we can find is 6.
That will lead us to our next update on The Sports Prophet NFL Prophecy, as we look at the next phase of misleading public perception.
